A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
